The Shake Shack call, exactly as it happened
Before Shake Shack’s Q2 print, we pre-registered the read on a hashed, timestamped public ledger — with the grading rule written down in advance: a HIT required at least four of the six customer-experience aspects we track to still sit below their 210-day baselines when we re-ran the computation on grading day.
On grading day, our own collection rotation had left the Shake Shack sample 18 days stale — and on that stale sample the forecast would have scored a HIT. Instead we re-scraped 45 locations and roughly 2,000 fresh reviews hours before grading. The fuller data showed only three of six below baseline. That’s a MISS, and that’s what we published.